Letters for Analysts

نویسندگان

چکیده

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Traditional intelligence analysis suffers from several systemic problems including: information overload; intelligence sharing difficulties; lack of time, methods, and resources for analytic collaboration with area experts; limited capabilities in regard to the consideration of multiple hypotheses; sociocultural and socio-psychological bias informing the analytic process; lack of time and resou...

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What do Analysts’ Forecasts Reveal about Analysts’ ‘Other’ Information? †

Analysts often provide forecasts of one-year ahead earnings, earnings two-year ahead, as well as long-term earnings growth rates. In our attempts to understand the properties of these contemporaneous multi-period earnings forecasts, we begin by examining whether analysts’ earnings forecasts can be described using the linear information dynamics (LID). We find that LID is an appropriate descript...

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Using Analysts’ Forecasts to Measure Properties of Analysts’ Information Environment

This paper presents a model that relates properties of the analysts' information environment to the properties of their forecasts. First, we express forecast dispersion and error in the mean forecast in terms of analyst uncertainty and consensus (that is, the degree to which analysts share a common belief). Second, we reverse the relations to show how uncertainty and consensus can be measured b...

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What do Analysts ’ Forecasts Reveal about Analysts ’ Private Information ?

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Nature

سال: 1968

ISSN: 0028-0836,1476-4687

DOI: 10.1038/219985b0